Dijon 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dijon have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 54% versus Amiens 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 46% | Amiens 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.29 xG and Amiens 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.060 / defence 1.361 | Amiens attack 1.004 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Dijon games / 11 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 30% | Amiens 37%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 67% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 30% | Amiens 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Dijon 1.29 / Amiens 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.060 / def 1.361 | Amiens attack 1.004 / def 1.314 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Amiens xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Amiens kick off?
Dijon vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Amiens?
Dijon 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Dijon vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Amiens part of?
Dijon vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 33% chance of winning, Amiens a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dijon and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Amiens in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.06x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.00x) against Dijon's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
33%
3.08
30%
3.30
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Amiens xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dijon and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Dijon and 1.39 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Dijon have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 3W 1D 7L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 1W 6D 4L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Dijon against 0.82 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Dijon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Amiens in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Amiens have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Amiens away?
Dijon's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.40 PPG; Amiens away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Dijon or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Amiens in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 3-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Amiens have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Dijon 3-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Amiens?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 60%, Amiens 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dijon) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dijon's games and 60% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dijon's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Amiens tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Amiens in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.29 xG and Amiens 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.06 / defence 1.36 against Amiens attack 1.00 / defence 1.31, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 33% | Draw 30% | Amiens 37%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 46%, Amiens 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 0.91 PPG, Amiens 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.