Concarneau 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Concarneau welcome Rodez to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Concarneau have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Concarneau are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Concarneau's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Concarneau, 1 for Rodez and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Concarneau trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rodez trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 35% versus Rodez 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 41% | Rodez 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.12 xG and Rodez 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.836 / defence 1.344 | Rodez attack 1.152 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: 34 Concarneau games / 71 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 24% | Draw 24% | Rodez 52%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 1.92. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 50% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 24% | Draw 24% | Rodez 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Concarneau 1.12 / Rodez 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.836 / def 1.344 | Rodez attack 1.152 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rodez (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Rodez xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Rodez kick off?
Concarneau vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Rodez?
Concarneau 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Concarneau vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Rodez part of?
Concarneau vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 24% chance of winning, Rodez a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Concarneau and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Concarneau and Rodez in?
Concarneau (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Rodez (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Concarneau's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
24%
4.20
24%
4.17
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.88
1.76
Rodez xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
24.53
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.76 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Concarneau's recent record stands at 9W 8D 17L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 9L across 34 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Concarneau heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Concarneau have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Concarneau are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Rodez in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 11D 9L in their last 34 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.00 PPG; Rodez away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and Rodez runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Rodez?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Concarneau 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 53%, Rodez 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Concarneau) and 59% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Concarneau's games and 71% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Concarneau's matches and 59% of Rodez's.
Do Concarneau and Rodez tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Rodez in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Concarneau 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Concarneau 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.12 xG and Rodez 1.76 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Rodez attack 1.15 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 24% | Draw 24% | Rodez 52%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 41%, Rodez 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.