Clermont Foot 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 47% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 45% | Rodez 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.860 / defence 1.152 | Rodez attack 1.448 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Clermont Foot games / 53 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Clermont Foot 1.41 / Rodez 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.860 / def 1.152 | Rodez attack 1.448 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Rodez (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rodez kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rodez part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Rodez a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.86) and Rodez's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.45x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.21
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.07
1.67
Rodez xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.67 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 9W 14D 26L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.69 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 14D 26L in their last 49 games (0.84 PPG), while Rodez have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.92 PPG; Rodez away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Rodez have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-2 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 52%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Clermont Foot) and 60% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 60% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rodez tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rodez in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.45 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 45%, Rodez 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.