Clermont Foot 0-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel-Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Estac Troyes's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Clermont Foot have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Estac Troyes have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
The historical record gives Clermont Foot a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Estac Troyes 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | Estac Troyes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.74 xG and Estac Troyes 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.621 / defence 1.001 | Estac Troyes attack 0.984 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.088. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Clermont Foot games / 68 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Estac Troyes 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Clermont Foot's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
Clermont Foot dominate the H2H record, yet Estac Troyes are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Clermont Foot 0.74 / Estac Troyes 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.621 / def 1.001 | Estac Troyes attack 0.984 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Estac Troyes xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot 0 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 25% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 4W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.62) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.11
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.81
1.07
Estac Troyes xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.07 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 11W 20D 33L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 18W 18D 28L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.83 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (5W 13D 13L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 9D 15L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.05 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 20D 33L in their last 64 games (0.83 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 18W 18D 28L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.90 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 52%, Estac Troyes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Clermont Foot) and 42% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 32%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 45% of games; Estac Troyes in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 39% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 0-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.74 xG and Estac Troyes 1.07 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.62 / defence 1.00 against Estac Troyes attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.83 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.