Clermont Foot 1-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Dijon (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Clermont Foot's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Dijon 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.874 / defence 0.862 | Dijon attack 0.854 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.114. Data: 36 Clermont Foot games / 2 Dijon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 33% | Dijon 26%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Dijon 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 33% | Dijon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Clermont Foot 1.12 / Dijon 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.874 / def 0.862 | Dijon attack 0.854 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Dijon xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Dijon kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Dijon?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Dijon part of?
Clermont Foot vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 42% chance of winning, Dijon a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Clermont Foot and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Dijon in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.87) and Dijon's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.85x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.05
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.94
0.82
Dijon xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.82 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.50 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Dijon in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Clermont Foot or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dijon?
From 1 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Dijon.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 0% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Dijon tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dijon in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Dijon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 3, as Clermont Foot and Dijon drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Dijon 0.82 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Dijon attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 33% | Dijon 26%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 50%, Dijon 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.50 PPG, Dijon 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.