Clermont Foot 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Amiens.

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Full Analysis

Stade Gabriel-Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.00 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Amiens edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Clermont Foot 0–1 Amiens — a Amiens win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Amiens — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 43% | Amiens 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Amiens have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.626 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.785 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.061. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Amiens's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 27 games and Amiens's last 65.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 32% | Amiens 29%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.08 | Amiens 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 60% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).

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