Caen 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Caen face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Caen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Caen, 1.70 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Caen's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) — Caen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Caen edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Caen 2–1 Guingamp — a Caen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 58% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 53% | Guingamp 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Caen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.82 xG and Guingamp 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.249 / defence 1.095 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Data: built from Caen's last 45 games and Guingamp's last 46.
Result probabilities: Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.03 | Draw 4.36 | Guingamp 3.61. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 80% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Caen 1.82 / Guingamp 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.249 / def 1.095 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Caen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Guingamp xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Caen vs Guingamp kick off?
Caen vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Caen 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Caen vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Guingamp part of?
Caen vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 49% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Caen and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Caen vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.25) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.14x) against Caen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 45 games and Guingamp's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.36
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Caen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.31
Guingamp xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Caen and 1.31 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Caen have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 20W 11D 14L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 17W 12D 16L from 45 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Caen against 1.40 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 7D 7L from their last 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Guingamp
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Early Season
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Caen vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Guingamp away?
Caen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.96 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Caen or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Guingamp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Guingamp have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won Caen 4-1 Guingamp on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 3, Guingamp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2025: Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 61%, Guingamp 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Caen) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Guingamp matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Caen's games and 61% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Caen and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Caen's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Caen's recent matches and 70% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.82 xG and Guingamp 1.31 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Guingamp attack 1.14 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, Guingamp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.58 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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