Caen 0-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Dijon travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Ligue 2 matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
Dijon — All Games: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.38 PPG (Caen) versus 0.88 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Dijon in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 38% versus Dijon 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 38% | Dijon 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.49 xG and Dijon 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.223 / defence 1.193 | Dijon attack 0.753 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Caen games / 8 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 34% | Dijon 20%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Dijon 5.00. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Dijon 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 34% | Dijon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Caen 1.49 / Dijon 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.223 / def 1.193 | Dijon attack 0.753 / def 1.466 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Caen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Dijon xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Dijon kick off?
Caen vs Dijon kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Dijon?
Caen 0 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Caen vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Dijon part of?
Caen vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 46% chance of winning, Dijon a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Caen and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Dijon in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.22) and Dijon's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
46%
2.18
34%
2.98
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Caen xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Dijon xG
2.18
46%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Caen and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Caen and 0.95 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Caen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon's form line: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Caen are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dijon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon in 75%.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Dijon in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Dijon have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Dijon away?
Caen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.00 PPG; Dijon away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Caen or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dijon in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Dijon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Caen
1
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Caen 2-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Caen at 67%, Dijon at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Caen and 67% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dijon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Caen's games and 67% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Caen vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Caen's matches and 67% of Dijon's.
Do Caen and Dijon tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dijon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.49 xG and Dijon 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Dijon attack 0.75 / defence 1.47, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 46% | Draw 34% | Dijon 20%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Dijon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 38%, Dijon 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Dijon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.