Caen 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Caen welcome Bastia to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's home record at Stade Michel d'Ornano: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Caen at 1.10 PPG versus Bastia's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Caen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Bastia, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Caen winning.
The historical record gives Caen a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 50% versus Bastia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.05 xG and Bastia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.785 / defence 0.986 | Bastia attack 0.990 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.112. Caen's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Caen games / 48 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 34% | Draw 30% | Bastia 36%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Bastia 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 34% | Draw 30% | Bastia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Caen 1.05 / Bastia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.785 / def 0.986 | Bastia attack 0.990 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Bastia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Bastia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Bastia kick off?
Caen vs Bastia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Bastia?
Caen 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Caen vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Bastia part of?
Caen vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 34% chance of winning, Bastia a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Caen and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
Record (6 meetings): Caen 4W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Caen and Bastia in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Caen vs Bastia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
34%
2.92
30%
3.37
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Caen xG
Total xG
2.13
1.08
Bastia xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Caen and 1.08 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 9D 20L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (17W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.38 PPG, Bastia on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Caen's home form reads 11W 4D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Bastia in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Bastia have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Bastia away?
Caen's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.61 PPG; Bastia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Caen or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Caen
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 5, Bastia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Bastia?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 35%, Bastia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Caen and 39% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Caen have failed to score in 26% of games; Bastia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Caen's recent matches and 52% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Caen's recent games and 39% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Bastia tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bastia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.05 xG and Bastia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Bastia attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 34% | Draw 30% | Bastia 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.38 PPG, Bastia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.