Caen 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Caen versus Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Caen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Caen against 1.40 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 50% versus Annecy 21%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 36% | Annecy 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.30 xG and Annecy 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.171 / defence 0.798 | Annecy attack 0.992 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Caen's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Caen games / 14 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 47% | Draw 29% | Annecy 24%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 4.17. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Annecy 14% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 47% | Draw 29% | Annecy 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Caen 1.30 / Annecy 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.171 / def 0.798 | Annecy attack 0.992 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Caen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Annecy xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Annecy kick off?
Caen vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Annecy?
Caen 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Caen vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Annecy part of?
Caen vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 47% chance of winning, Annecy a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Caen and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Annecy in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Caen's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.99x) against Caen's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.49
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Caen xG
Total xG
2.13
0.83
Annecy xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Caen and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Caen and 0.83 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Caen's recent record stands at 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 7L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Caen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Caen have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Caen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Annecy's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.86 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 21%.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Annecy in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Annecy have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Annecy away?
Caen's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 2.29 PPG; Annecy away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Caen or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Annecy 1-0 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (Caen) and 14% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Caen and 29% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Annecy in 43%; Annecy in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Caen's recent matches and 14% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Caen's recent games and 29% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Annecy tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Annecy in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Caen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Annecy finished level at 0-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.30 xG and Annecy 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Caen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against Annecy attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 47% | Draw 29% | Annecy 24%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 36%, Annecy 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.