Boulogne vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Boulogne versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 4 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Boulogne have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Boulogne are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
PAU have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, PAU are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Boulogne 1W, PAU 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Boulogne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Boulogne — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 47% versus PAU 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 42% | PAU 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.21 xG and PAU 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.898 / defence 0.981 | PAU attack 1.061 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Boulogne games / 38 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 33% | Draw 30% | PAU 37%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | PAU 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 50% | PAU 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 33% | Draw 30% | PAU 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Boulogne 1.21 / PAU 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.898 / def 0.981 | PAU attack 1.061 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: PAU (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.30
PAU xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs PAU kick off?
Boulogne vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 4 December 2026.
What competition is Boulogne vs PAU part of?
Boulogne vs PAU is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 33% chance of winning, PAU a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Boulogne and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Boulogne and PAU in?
Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.06x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.30
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.52
1.30
PAU xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Boulogne and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.30 for PAU, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 12D 17L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU's form line: 13W 10D 15L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Boulogne against 1.29 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
On the road, PAU have gone 8W 5D 6L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boulogne are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and PAU in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while PAU have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.89 PPG; PAU away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Boulogne
0
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and PAU?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, PAU have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when PAU 1-2 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 58%, PAU 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Boulogne and 63% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU in 37%; Boulogne have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Boulogne's games and 53% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Boulogne's matches and 63% of PAU's.
Do Boulogne and PAU tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, PAU in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.