Boulogne 0-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boulogne at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Nancy travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stade de la Libération — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Libération this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nancy have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Boulogne have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Boulogne have won 0, Nancy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Nancy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Nancy in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 52% versus Nancy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 48% | Nancy 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.48 xG and Nancy 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 1.083 / defence 1.432 | Nancy attack 0.803 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.173. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Boulogne games / 27 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 40% | Draw 26% | Nancy 34%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Nancy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 70% | Nancy 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 40% | Draw 26% | Nancy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Boulogne 1.48 / Nancy 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 1.083 / def 1.432 | Nancy attack 0.803 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Nancy xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Nancy kick off?
Boulogne vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Nancy?
Boulogne 0 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Boulogne vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Nancy part of?
Boulogne vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 40% chance of winning, Nancy a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Boulogne and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 0 | Nancy 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Nancy in?
Boulogne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Nancy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 1.08x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.88
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.83
1.35
Nancy xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.35 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boulogne come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 6D 12L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boulogne on 1.22 PPG, Nancy on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 1D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.89 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Nancy in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Nancy have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Nancy away?
Boulogne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 1.00 PPG; Nancy away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Boulogne's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
2
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Nancy?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Nancy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Boulogne 0-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Nancy?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Nancy 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Boulogne and 62% for Nancy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 62% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Boulogne's matches and 62% of Nancy's.
Do Boulogne and Nancy tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nancy in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Boulogne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne and Nancy finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.48 xG and Nancy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nancy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 1.08 / defence 1.43 against Nancy attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 40% | Draw 26% | Nancy 34%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 48%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nancy's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.22 PPG, Nancy 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.