Boulogne vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Boulogne welcome Guingamp to . Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 1W 5D 4L at — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 0.90 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Boulogne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Boulogne, 2 for Guingamp and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.12 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.807 / defence 0.980 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Boulogne 60% | Guingamp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Boulogne 1.12 / Guingamp 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.807 / def 0.980 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Guingamp xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Guingamp kick off?
Boulogne vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Guingamp part of?
Boulogne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Boulogne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Boulogne and Guingamp in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.81) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.25
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.14
1.02
Guingamp xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.02 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boulogne on 1.05 PPG, Guingamp on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Guingamp away?
Boulogne's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Guingamp?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 62% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Boulogne's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do Boulogne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.