Boulogne 2-6 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 39%, yet in-form Boulogne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Boulogne vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Boulogne welcome Dunkerque to Stade de la Libération. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de la Libération this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dunkerque's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Boulogne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Boulogne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Boulogne have won 0, Dunkerque 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 48% versus Dunkerque 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 46% | Dunkerque 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.21 xG and Dunkerque 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.831 / defence 1.129 | Dunkerque attack 1.034 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.188. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Boulogne games / 65 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 31% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 39%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Dunkerque 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Boulogne (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Dunkerque 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 31% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Boulogne 1.21 / Dunkerque 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.831 / def 1.129 | Dunkerque attack 1.034 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dunkerque xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Dunkerque kick off?
Boulogne vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Dunkerque?
Boulogne 2 - 6 Dunkerque.
Where is Boulogne vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Dunkerque part of?
Boulogne vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 31% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Boulogne and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Boulogne and Dunkerque in?
Boulogne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
31%
3.27
31%
3.25
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.60
1.39
Dunkerque xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.39 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 9D 14L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 11W 10D 12L from 33 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boulogne on 1.18 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Boulogne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 11W 10D 12L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.94 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boulogne and Dunkerque runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Boulogne 2-6 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 56%, Dunkerque 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Boulogne and 62% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 31% of games; Dunkerque in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Boulogne's games and 62% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Boulogne's matches and 62% of Dunkerque's.
Do Boulogne and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Boulogne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Boulogne 2-6 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.21 xG and Dunkerque 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.39 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Dunkerque attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 31% | Draw 31% | Dunkerque 39%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 46%, Dunkerque 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.18 PPG, Dunkerque 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.