Bordeaux 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Bordeaux welcome Valenciennes to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bordeaux haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Valenciennes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valenciennes haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Valenciennes's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.20 (Valenciennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valenciennes trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 68% and Valenciennes 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 66% | Valenciennes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.07 xG and Valenciennes 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Valenciennes attack 0.955 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.083. Data: 0 Bordeaux games / 38 Valenciennes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 33% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 39%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Valenciennes 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valenciennes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Bordeaux 50% | Valenciennes 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 33% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bordeaux 1.07 / Valenciennes 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Valenciennes attack 0.955 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Valenciennes xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Valenciennes kick off?
Bordeaux vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Bordeaux 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Bordeaux vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Valenciennes part of?
Bordeaux vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 33% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bordeaux and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Valenciennes in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.49
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
Valenciennes xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.19 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 6W 13D 19L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. Bordeaux haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Valenciennes's form line: 10W 14D 14L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. Valenciennes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.82 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.84 PPG from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 5W 9D 5L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valenciennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 2.39 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.89 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Pre-Season
Valenciennes
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 6W 13D 19L in their last 38 games (0.82 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 10W 14D 14L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Valenciennes away?
Valenciennes's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.84 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bordeaux have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bordeaux
1
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 3, Valenciennes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Bordeaux 3-1 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Valenciennes?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 68%, Valenciennes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bordeaux) and 32% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 32% of games; Valenciennes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Valenciennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bordeaux's games and 53% of Valenciennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bordeaux's recent games and 32% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bordeaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 1, as Bordeaux and Valenciennes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.07 xG and Valenciennes 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bordeaux fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Valenciennes attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 33% | Draw 29% | Valenciennes 39%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 66%, Valenciennes 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.82 PPG, Valenciennes 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.