Bastia 2-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bastia (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bastia face Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Bastia's favour (1.80 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Niort 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 32% | Niort 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.55 xG and Niort 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.122 / defence 0.878 | Niort attack 0.601 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Data: 72 Bastia games / 72 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Niort 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Niort's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 40% | Niort 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG Bastia 1.55 / Niort 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.122 / def 0.878 | Niort attack 0.601 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bastia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Niort xG
35%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Niort kick off?
Bastia vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Niort?
Bastia 2 - 1 Niort.
Where is Bastia vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Niort part of?
Bastia vs Niort is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 61% chance of winning, Niort a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bastia and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Niort?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Bastia and Niort in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Niort (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.12x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.60x) against Bastia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.90
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.59
Niort xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
3%
34.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Bastia and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bastia and 0.59 for Niort, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 24D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.01 PPG from 72 outings (19W 16D 37L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bastia against 1.01 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 15W 15D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (7W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.94 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Niort in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Niort have gone 19W 16D 37L in their last 72 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Niort away?
Bastia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.67 PPG; Niort away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bastia or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Niort in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bastia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 1-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Bastia 2-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Niort?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 39%, Niort 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Bastia and 42% for Niort.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Niort in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bastia's recent matches and 33% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Bastia's recent games and 42% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Niort tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Niort in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Niort 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Niort 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.55 xG and Niort 0.59 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Niort attack 0.60 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 61% | Draw 26% | Niort 14%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Niort 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.38 PPG, Niort 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.