Bastia 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 3W 7D 0L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Guingamp's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.50 PPG, Guingamp 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 0 for Guingamp and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 47% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 28% | Guingamp 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.95 xG and Guingamp 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.861 / defence 0.876 | Guingamp attack 0.815 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.970. Data: 32 Bastia games / 32 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 39% | Draw 37% | Guingamp 24%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Guingamp 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.64 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 40% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 39% | Draw 37% | Guingamp 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Bastia 0.95 / Guingamp 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.861 / def 0.876 | Guingamp attack 0.815 / def 1.136 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Bastia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Guingamp xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Guingamp kick off?
Bastia vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Bastia vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Guingamp part of?
Bastia vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 39% chance of winning, Guingamp a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Bastia and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.73
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.64
0.69
Guingamp xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 13.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Bastia and 0.69 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 15D 9L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (10W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.22 PPG, Guingamp on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 4W 12D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 8W 15D 9L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Guingamp away?
Bastia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.50 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Bastia or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guingamp in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Guingamp?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 44%, Guingamp 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Bastia and 31% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Guingamp in 31%; Bastia have failed to score in 31% of games; Guingamp in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bastia's recent matches and 38% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Bastia's recent games and 31% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Bastia 1-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.95 xG and Guingamp 0.69 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Guingamp attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 39% | Draw 37% | Guingamp 24%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 28%, Guingamp 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.22 PPG, Guingamp 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.