Bastia 3-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Annecy travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bastia are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 0 for Annecy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Annecy trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 33% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | Annecy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 2.33 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.177 / defence 0.963 | Annecy attack 0.935 / defence 1.576. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.576 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Bastia games / 30 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 68% | Draw 18% | Annecy 14%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Annecy 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 40% | Annecy 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 68% | Draw 18% | Annecy 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Bastia 2.33 / Annecy 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.177 / def 0.963 | Annecy attack 0.935 / def 1.576 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bastia (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Annecy kick off?
Bastia vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Bastia 3 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Bastia vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Annecy part of?
Bastia vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 68% chance of winning, Annecy a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bastia and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Bastia and Annecy in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
68%
1.46
18%
5.54
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.27
0.94
Annecy xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
75.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Bastia and 0.94 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 6D 10L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 9W 2D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.07 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Annecy have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Annecy away?
Bastia's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.93 PPG; Annecy away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Bastia or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 27%, Annecy 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Bastia) and 53% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Annecy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Bastia's recent matches and 47% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bastia's recent games and 53% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Annecy tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Annecy in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bastia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Annecy 3-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 2.33 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Annecy landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.58, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 68% | Draw 18% | Annecy 14%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Annecy 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.