Auxerre 1-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Auxerre welcome Valenciennes to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valenciennes's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.40 (Valenciennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Valenciennes in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Valenciennes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Valenciennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Valenciennes 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.23 xG and Valenciennes 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.131 / defence 1.349 | Valenciennes attack 0.848 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Data: 31 Auxerre games / 31 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 32%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Valenciennes 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 80% | Valenciennes 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 1.23 / Valenciennes 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.131 / def 1.349 | Valenciennes attack 0.848 / def 1.097 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Valenciennes xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Valenciennes kick off?
Auxerre vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Auxerre vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Valenciennes part of?
Auxerre vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Valenciennes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.13) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.27
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Valenciennes xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.11 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 10D 6L from 31 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 11L across 31 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valenciennes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 4W 8D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.97 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 10D 6L in their last 31 games (1.77 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Valenciennes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.67 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Valenciennes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Auxerre won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Valenciennes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Auxerre 0-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Valenciennes?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 60%, Valenciennes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Auxerre) and 27% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valenciennes in 33%; Valenciennes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Valenciennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Auxerre's games and 53% of Valenciennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Auxerre's recent games and 27% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Valenciennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Valenciennes 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.23 xG and Valenciennes 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valenciennes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.13 / defence 1.35 against Valenciennes attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 32%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Valenciennes 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valenciennes's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.