Auxerre 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round sees Sochaux travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 May 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sochaux away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 2.30 PPG, Sochaux 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sochaux in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Sochaux and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sochaux trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Sochaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Sochaux 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.26 xG and Sochaux 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.134 / defence 1.100 | Sochaux attack 0.962 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.110. Data: 38 Auxerre games / 38 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 34%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sochaux 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 70% | Sochaux 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Auxerre 1.26 / Sochaux 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.134 / def 1.100 | Sochaux attack 0.962 / def 1.142 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sochaux xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Sochaux kick off?
Auxerre vs Sochaux kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Auxerre vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Sochaux part of?
Auxerre vs Sochaux is a Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Sochaux a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Auxerre and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Sochaux?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 1 | Sochaux 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Sochaux in?
Auxerre (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sochaux (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.13x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.58
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.43
1.17
Sochaux xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 11D 6L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (19W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.95 PPG, Sochaux on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.21 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Sochaux in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 19W 11D 8L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Sochaux away?
Auxerre's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.95 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sochaux in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Sochaux?
From 3 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Sochaux have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Auxerre 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Sochaux?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 58%, Sochaux 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Auxerre) and 47% (Sochaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sochaux in 37%; Sochaux in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Auxerre's games and 53% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Auxerre's matches and 47% of Sochaux's.
Do Auxerre and Sochaux tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Sochaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.26 xG and Sochaux 1.17 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Sochaux attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 34%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Sochaux 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sochaux's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.95 PPG, Sochaux 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.