Auxerre 2-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Auxerre at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Auxerre, 2.10 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Auxerre 2–0 Paris FC — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Paris FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Paris FC 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Paris FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.44 xG and Paris FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.263 / defence 0.819 | Paris FC attack 1.005 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.148. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 1.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Auxerre's last 35 games and Paris FC's last 73.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 48% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.08 | Draw 3.62 | Paris FC 4.11. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 36 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 48% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Auxerre 1.44 / Paris FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.263 / def 0.819 | Paris FC attack 1.005 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Paris FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Auxerre 2 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 36) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 48% chance of winning, Paris FC a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.00x) against Auxerre's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 35 games and Paris FC's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.62
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.38
0.94
Paris FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.94 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 27W 21D 25L from 73 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 20D 23L across 73 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Auxerre against 1.51 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 15W 12D 9L from their last 36 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 13W 13D 10L across their last 36 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 21D 25L in their last 73 games (1.40 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 30W 20D 23L in their last 73 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Auxerre's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.58 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 53%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 36% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris FC in 36%; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 36% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Auxerre's recent matches and 53% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Paris FC 2-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.44 xG and Paris FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Paris FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.26 / defence 0.82 against Paris FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 48% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 24%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.40 PPG, Paris FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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