Auxerre 1-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Nancy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nancy's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nancy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Auxerre 1W, Nancy 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 52% versus Nancy 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Nancy 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.33 xG and Nancy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.252 / defence 1.354 | Nancy attack 0.767 / defence 1.932. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.989. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.932 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Auxerre games / 23 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 65% | Draw 21% | Nancy 14%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Nancy 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Nancy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 65% | Draw 21% | Nancy 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Auxerre 2.33 / Nancy 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.252 / def 1.354 | Nancy attack 0.767 / def 1.932 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Nancy xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nancy kick off?
Auxerre vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nancy?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Auxerre vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nancy part of?
Auxerre vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 65% chance of winning, Nancy a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Auxerre and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Nancy in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.25) and Nancy's defence rating (1.93), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.77x) against Auxerre's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.80
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.36
1.03
Nancy xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
1%
73.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.03 for Nancy, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 8D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.70 PPG from 23 outings (3W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Auxerre's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.78 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy in 61%.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nancy in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 8D 5L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while Nancy have gone 3W 7D 13L in their last 23 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nancy away?
Auxerre's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.64 PPG; Nancy away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nancy in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Auxerre 1-1 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nancy?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Nancy 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Auxerre and 54% for Nancy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nancy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Auxerre's games and 64% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Auxerre's matches and 54% of Nancy's.
Do Auxerre and Nancy tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Nancy in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Nancy finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.33 xG and Nancy 1.03 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.25 / defence 1.35 against Nancy attack 0.77 / defence 1.93, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 65% | Draw 21% | Nancy 14%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.