Annecy 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 37%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rodez, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Annecy.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rodez have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Rodez in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Annecy 51% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 54% | Rodez 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.093 / defence 0.947 | Rodez attack 1.031 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Data: 35 Annecy games / 35 Rodez games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 37% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Annecy 1.27 / Rodez 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.093 / def 0.947 | Rodez attack 1.031 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Rodez kick off?
Annecy vs Rodez kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Annecy 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Annecy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Rodez part of?
Annecy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 37% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Annecy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
Record (8 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 5W.
What form are Annecy and Rodez in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
37%
2.74
31%
3.25
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.45
1.19
Rodez xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Annecy and 1.19 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 16W 7D 12L from 35 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 5L across 35 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.57 PPG, Rodez on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 7W 6D 4L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 7W 7D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.46 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 74%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Rodez have gone 17W 13D 5L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.59 PPG; Rodez away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Annecy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Rodez runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Rodez have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Annecy at 65%, Rodez at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Annecy) and 59% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Annecy's games and 76% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Annecy's matches and 59% of Rodez's.
Do Annecy and Rodez tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rodez in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Rodez 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.19 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rodez landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Rodez attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 37% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Rodez 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.57 PPG, Rodez 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.