Annecy 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Annecy's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Annecy 0W, Estac Troyes 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 58% versus Estac Troyes 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 60% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.65 xG and Estac Troyes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.201 / defence 1.173 | Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Data: 43 Annecy games / 43 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Estac Troyes 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Estac Troyes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Annecy 1.65 / Estac Troyes 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.201 / def 1.173 | Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Annecy 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Annecy vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Estac Troyes part of?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Annecy and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 2 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Annecy and Estac Troyes in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.73x) against Annecy's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.08
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.68
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Annecy and 1.03 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 12D 17L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 9W 16D 18L from 43 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Annecy against 1.00 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 10D 9L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.02 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 16D 18L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Estac Troyes away?
Annecy's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.14 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 57%, Estac Troyes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Annecy) and 38% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Annecy have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Annecy's recent matches and 43% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Annecy's recent games and 38% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.65 xG and Estac Troyes 1.03 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.20 / defence 1.17 against Estac Troyes attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 60%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.26 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.