Amiens 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Sochaux meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.25 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amiens 75% and Sochaux 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 75% | Sochaux 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.82 xG and Sochaux 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.011 / defence 1.429 | Sochaux attack 1.080 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Data: 4 Amiens games / 4 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 12% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 61%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 8.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sochaux 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 75% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 12% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Amiens 0.82 / Sochaux 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.011 / def 1.429 | Sochaux attack 1.080 / def 1.139 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Sochaux xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Sochaux kick off?
Amiens vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Sochaux?
Amiens 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Amiens vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Sochaux part of?
Amiens vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 12% chance of winning, Sochaux a 61% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Amiens and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Sochaux in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W. Sochaux (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.08x) against Amiens's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
12%
8.24
27%
3.67
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.76
1.94
Sochaux xG
8.24
12%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
57.25
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Amiens and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Amiens and 1.94 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Sochaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 1L across 4 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Amiens have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
2
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Sochaux have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Sochaux?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 75%, Sochaux 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amiens and 50% for Sochaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Amiens's games and 50% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amiens vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amiens's matches and 50% of Sochaux's.
Do Amiens and Sochaux tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 5, as Amiens and Sochaux drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.82 xG and Sochaux 1.94 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.01 / defence 1.43 against Sochaux attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 12% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 61%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 75%, Sochaux 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Sochaux's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.