Amiens 1-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 37 as Amiens welcome Paris FC to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.30 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Amiens, 1 for Paris FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 44% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 36% | Paris FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.21 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.023 / defence 0.951 | Paris FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.062. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Amiens games / 36 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 30% | Paris FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Amiens 1.21 / Paris FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.023 / def 0.951 | Paris FC attack 0.860 / def 1.256 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Amiens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Paris FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Paris FC kick off?
Amiens vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Amiens 1 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Amiens vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Paris FC part of?
Amiens vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 43% chance of winning, Paris FC a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.02x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.18
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.08
0.87
Paris FC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Amiens and 0.87 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 17D 10L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (18W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Amiens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 7W 6D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.39 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 9W 17D 10L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Paris FC away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Amiens or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Paris FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 33%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Amiens) and 44% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 44% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Paris FC tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.21 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Paris FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 43% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 25%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Paris FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.