Amiens 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Amiens welcome Paris FC to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Paris FC — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Paris FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Paris FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Amiens.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Paris FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 42% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 35% | Paris FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.30 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.134 / defence 0.808 | Paris FC attack 1.254 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Paris FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Amiens games / 48 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Paris FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Amiens 1.30 / Paris FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.134 / def 0.808 | Paris FC attack 1.254 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Amiens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Paris FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Paris FC kick off?
Amiens vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Amiens 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Amiens vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Paris FC part of?
Amiens vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 40% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Amiens and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 4W.
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in?
Amiens (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Amiens vs Paris FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.13x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Paris FC xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Amiens and 1.15 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 17D 13L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (24W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.48 PPG, Paris FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 10W 10D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 17D 13L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Paris FC away?
Amiens's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.67 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Amiens or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Paris FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Paris FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 46%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 42% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Amiens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Paris FC tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 11, as Amiens and Paris FC drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.30 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.13 / defence 0.81 against Paris FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 40% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 33%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 35%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.48 PPG, Paris FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.