Amiens 3-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Nimes at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nimes — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Amiens 1.60 PPG, Nimes 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Amiens, 0 for Nimes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nimes trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Nimes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Nimes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.77 xG and Nimes 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.303 / defence 1.037 | Nimes attack 1.005 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Amiens carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Amiens games / 25 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 54% | Draw 25% | Nimes 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Nimes 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 30% | Nimes 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 54% | Draw 25% | Nimes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Amiens 1.77 / Nimes 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.303 / def 1.037 | Nimes attack 1.005 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Amiens (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Nimes xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Nimes kick off?
Amiens vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Nimes?
Amiens 3 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Amiens vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Nimes part of?
Amiens vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 54% chance of winning, Nimes a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Amiens and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Nimes 0W.
What form are Amiens and Nimes in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Nimes (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Nimes's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.96
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.79
1.02
Nimes xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
28.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Amiens and 1.02 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 6W 12D 7L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 10W 5D 10L from 25 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.20 PPG, Nimes on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Nimes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 6W 12D 7L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Nimes have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Nimes away?
Amiens's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.58 PPG; Nimes away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Amiens or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nimes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Nimes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Nimes?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 33%, Nimes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Amiens) and 58% (Nimes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nimes in 33%; Amiens have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 42% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Amiens's matches and 58% of Nimes's.
Do Amiens and Nimes tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nimes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Nimes 3-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.77 xG and Nimes 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nimes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.30 / defence 1.04 against Nimes attack 1.00 / defence 1.34, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 54% | Draw 25% | Nimes 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Nimes 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nimes's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.20 PPG, Nimes 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.