Amiens 0-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Montpellier at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens at Stade de la Licorne this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Montpellier away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Montpellier — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Amiens, 0 for Montpellier and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Montpellier in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Montpellier 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.86 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.952 / defence 1.447 | Montpellier attack 0.677 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Montpellier's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Amiens games / 31 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Montpellier 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 70% | Montpellier 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 0.86 / Montpellier 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.952 / def 1.447 | Montpellier attack 0.677 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Montpellier xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Montpellier kick off?
Amiens vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Montpellier?
Amiens 0 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Amiens vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Montpellier part of?
Amiens vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 26% chance of winning, Montpellier a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 0W.
What form are Amiens and Montpellier in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
26%
3.90
34%
2.95
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.01
1.15
Montpellier xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Amiens and 1.15 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 10D 36L from 65 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 36L across 65 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.03 PPG, Montpellier on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 13W 5D 14L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 6W 4D 22L across 32 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.92 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 10D 36L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 17W 12D 36L in their last 65 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Montpellier away?
Amiens's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.38 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Amiens 0-2 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 53%, Montpellier 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 28% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games; Montpellier in 66%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Amiens's recent matches and 22% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 28% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Montpellier tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.86 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Montpellier outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.95 / defence 1.45 against Montpellier attack 0.68 / defence 0.75, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 26% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 40%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Montpellier's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.03 PPG, Montpellier 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.