Amiens 4-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grenoble make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 41% versus Grenoble 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 41% | Grenoble 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.16 xG and Grenoble 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.044 / defence 0.960 | Grenoble attack 0.608 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Data: 17 Amiens games / 17 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 50% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 18%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Grenoble 5.56. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 33% | Grenoble 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 50% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 30% | xG Amiens 1.16 / Grenoble 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.044 / def 0.960 | Grenoble attack 0.608 / def 1.170 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Amiens (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Grenoble xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Grenoble kick off?
Amiens vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Grenoble?
Amiens 4 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Amiens vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Grenoble part of?
Amiens vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 50% chance of winning, Grenoble a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Amiens and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Grenoble in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Grenoble's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.61x) against Amiens's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.1%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
50%
1.99
32%
3.17
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.73
0.57
Grenoble xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Amiens and 0.57 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 9D 5L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Amiens against 1.24 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Grenoble in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 3W 9D 5L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Grenoble away?
Amiens's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.25 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Amiens or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Grenoble in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grenoble have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Grenoble have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Grenoble 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Amiens) and 25% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Amiens) and 25% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 50% of games; Grenoble in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Amiens's recent matches and 25% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 25% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Grenoble tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Grenoble 4-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.16 xG and Grenoble 0.57 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Grenoble attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 50% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 18%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 41%, Grenoble 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.06 PPG, Grenoble 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.