Amiens 1-3 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 35%, yet in-form Caen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Amiens vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Amiens welcome Caen to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Caen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Caen — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Amiens have won 0, Caen 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Caen in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Caen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Caen 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.05 xG and Caen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.777 / defence 1.006 | Caen attack 0.942 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.077. Amiens's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Amiens games / 73 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Caen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Caen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Caen 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 31% | Caen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Amiens 1.05 / Caen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.777 / def 1.006 | Caen attack 0.942 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Amiens (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Caen xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Caen kick off?
Amiens vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Caen?
Amiens 1 - 3 Caen.
Where is Amiens vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Caen part of?
Amiens vs Caen is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 35% chance of winning, Caen a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Caen?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 2 | Caen 1W.
What form are Amiens and Caen in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Caen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.78x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.24
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.07
1.02
Caen xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Amiens and 1.02 for Caen, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens come into this having played 73 games, going 21W 25D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.44 PPG from 73 outings (28W 21D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.21 PPG, Caen on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amiens's home form reads 15W 9D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.03 points per game from 36 outings (8W 13D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Caen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.34 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Caen in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 21W 25D 27L in their last 73 games (1.21 PPG), while Caen have gone 28W 21D 24L in their last 73 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Caen away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Caen away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Amiens or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Caen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Caen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Amiens's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Amiens
3
Draws
4
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Caen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Amiens 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 39%, Caen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Amiens) and 39% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Caen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Amiens's recent matches and 56% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Caen tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Caen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.05 xG and Caen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Caen outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Caen attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 35% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Caen 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.21 PPG, Caen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.