Ajaccio 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade François Coty this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Toulouse's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Ajaccio against 2.20 for Toulouse. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Toulouse and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Toulouse — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 22% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 19% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.16 xG and Toulouse 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.981 / defence 0.936 | Toulouse attack 1.116 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ajaccio games / 37 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 36% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 35%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ajaccio 40% | Toulouse 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 36% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Ajaccio 1.16 / Toulouse 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.981 / def 0.936 | Toulouse attack 1.116 / def 1.246 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Toulouse xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Toulouse kick off?
Ajaccio vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Ajaccio vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Toulouse part of?
Ajaccio vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 36% chance of winning, Toulouse a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ajaccio and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Toulouse in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.98) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.12x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.42
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
Toulouse xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.15 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajaccio come into this having played 37 games, going 21W 9D 7L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.14 PPG from 37 outings (23W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Ajaccio against 2.14 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ajaccio's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.83 points per game from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.22 scored and 0.86 conceded. Toulouse's attacking output running into Ajaccio's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; Toulouse in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 23W 10D 4L in their last 37 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Toulouse away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.17 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Toulouse in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Toulouse?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Toulouse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Ajaccio 0-0 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 28%, Toulouse 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ajaccio) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Toulouse in 39%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 56% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ajaccio's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Toulouse tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.16 xG and Toulouse 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Toulouse attack 1.12 / defence 1.25, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 36% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 35%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 19%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.95 PPG, Toulouse 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.