Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Ajaccio welcome Quevilly to Stade Michel-Moretti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajaccio have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Michel-Moretti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel-Moretti. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajaccio at 0.90 PPG versus Quevilly's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ajaccio have won 1, Quevilly 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 35% versus Quevilly 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 44% | Quevilly 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.23 xG and Quevilly 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.016 / defence 0.847 | Quevilly attack 1.093 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: 34 Ajaccio games / 72 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 31%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Quevilly 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Quevilly 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ajaccio 1.23 / Quevilly 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.016 / def 0.847 | Quevilly attack 1.093 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Quevilly xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Quevilly kick off?
Ajaccio vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Ajaccio 1 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Ajaccio vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Quevilly part of?
Ajaccio vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 40% chance of winning, Quevilly a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ajaccio and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Quevilly in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.02x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.44
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.28
1.05
Quevilly xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.05 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 19W 14D 39L from 72 games, a 0.99 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 18W 30D 24L across 72 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 0.99 PPG, Quevilly on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 9W 14D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 19W 14D 39L in their last 72 games (0.99 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 18W 30D 24L in their last 72 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Quevilly away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.39 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Quevilly in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Quevilly runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 31%, Quevilly 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ajaccio) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Quevilly in 39%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 44% of games; Quevilly in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 42% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ajaccio's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Quevilly tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio and Quevilly share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 35, as Ajaccio and Quevilly drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.23 xG and Quevilly 1.05 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Quevilly attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 40% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 31%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 44%, Quevilly 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 0.99 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.