Ajaccio 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel-Moretti plays host to Ajaccio versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade Michel-Moretti: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel-Moretti. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ajaccio, 1 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 35% versus Estac Troyes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 35% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.57 xG and Estac Troyes 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.989 / defence 0.840 | Estac Troyes attack 0.800 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Ajaccio games / 40 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 57% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 18%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Estac Troyes 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ajaccio (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 57% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Ajaccio 1.57 / Estac Troyes 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.989 / def 0.840 | Estac Troyes attack 0.800 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Estac Troyes xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes part of?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 57% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ajaccio and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): Ajaccio 2W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.99x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.80x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.96
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.34
0.77
Estac Troyes xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.77 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajaccio come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 10D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (9W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.05 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajaccio's home form reads 11W 6D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (2W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 15D 16L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Estac Troyes away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.95 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Estac Troyes 0-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 45%, Estac Troyes 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ajaccio) and 40% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 45% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ajaccio's recent games and 40% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.57 xG and Estac Troyes 0.77 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Estac Troyes attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 57% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 18%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 35%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.23 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.