Ajaccio 1-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Dijon travel to Stade François Coty to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade François Coty, Ajaccio have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon away from home this season: 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajaccio 1.70 PPG, Dijon 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dijon trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 21% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 14% | Dijon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.18 xG and Dijon 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.986 / defence 0.800 | Dijon attack 0.804 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ajaccio games / 14 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 48% | Draw 31% | Dijon 21%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Dijon 4.76. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dijon's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 14% | Dijon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 48% | Draw 31% | Dijon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Ajaccio 1.18 / Dijon 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.986 / def 0.800 | Dijon attack 0.804 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Dijon xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Dijon kick off?
Ajaccio vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Dijon?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Ajaccio vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Dijon part of?
Ajaccio vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 48% chance of winning, Dijon a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ajaccio and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Dijon in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.23
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.83
0.66
Dijon xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.66 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 4D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ajaccio's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Dijon in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Dijon have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Dijon away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.17 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Dijon in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Dijon 0-3 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Dijon?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 0% BTTS, Dijon 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ajaccio and 50% for Dijon.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 33% of games; Dijon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ajaccio's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Dijon tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dijon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Dijon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Dijon 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.18 xG and Dijon 0.66 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Dijon attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 48% | Draw 31% | Dijon 21%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 14%, Dijon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dijon's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.