Toulouse 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 76% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Toulouse welcome Saint Etienne to Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Toulouse at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.00 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Saint Etienne 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Saint Etienne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.44 xG and Saint Etienne 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.925 / defence 0.818 | Saint Etienne attack 0.638 / defence 1.775. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.279. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.775 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.638 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Toulouse's last 48 games and Saint Etienne's last 14.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.32 | Draw 6.11 | Saint Etienne 13.07. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (76%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Toulouse 50% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Toulouse 2.44 / Saint Etienne 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.925 / def 0.818 | Saint Etienne attack 0.638 / def 1.775 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Toulouse vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Toulouse 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Toulouse vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Saint Etienne part of?
Toulouse vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 76% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Toulouse and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Toulouse vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.93x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.77x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 48 games and Saint Etienne's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.11
8%
13.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.11
0.67
Saint Etienne xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.11
16%
Draw
13.07
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
9%
11.52
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
150.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.67 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 16W 13D 19L from 48 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 18L across 48 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.27 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 6W 8D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across their last 23 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 29%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 8D 18L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Saint Etienne away?
Toulouse's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.13 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Saint Etienne?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: Saint Etienne 2-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Saint Etienne?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 61%, Saint Etienne 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Toulouse) and 48% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 39%; Saint Etienne in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Toulouse's recent matches and 26% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Toulouse and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Toulouse's recent matches and 74% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.44 xG and Saint Etienne 0.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Saint Etienne attack 0.64 / defence 1.77, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Saint Etienne 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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