Toulouse 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Nantes travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nantes have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Nantes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Nantes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nantes in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Nantes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Nantes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.36 xG and Nantes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.868 / defence 1.182 | Nantes attack 0.878 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.234. Data: 34 Toulouse games / 72 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Nantes 35%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Nantes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 50% | Nantes 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Nantes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Toulouse 1.36 / Nantes 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.868 / def 1.182 | Nantes attack 0.878 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Nantes xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nantes kick off?
Toulouse vs Nantes kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Toulouse vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nantes part of?
Toulouse vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Nantes a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Toulouse and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 0 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Nantes (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.87) and Nantes's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.81
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
Nantes xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.28 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 72 games, going 35W 16D 21L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 1.21 PPG from 72 outings (21W 24D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 20W 8D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (6W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 35W 16D 21L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Nantes have gone 21W 24D 27L in their last 72 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nantes away?
Toulouse's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.89 PPG; Nantes away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nantes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Toulouse's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Toulouse
4
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
From 7 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Nantes have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 56%, Nantes 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Toulouse) and 44% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nantes in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Toulouse's games and 58% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Toulouse's recent games and 44% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Nantes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nantes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 35, as Toulouse and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.36 xG and Nantes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Nantes attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Nantes 35%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nantes's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.