Toulouse vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Estac Troyes are 0.60 PPG clear of Toulouse in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Estac Troyes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Estac Troyes 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.34 xG and Estac Troyes 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.838 / defence 1.086 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 35 Toulouse games / 2 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 40% | Estac Troyes 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Toulouse 1.34 / Estac Troyes 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.838 / def 1.086 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Estac Troyes xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 15:15 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Where is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes part of?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 34% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Toulouse and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.84) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.96x) against Toulouse's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (35/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.34
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.73
1.39
Estac Troyes xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.39 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 9D 14L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 20W 8D 7L from 35 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.71 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.33 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 39%, Estac Troyes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 50% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 33%; Toulouse have failed to score in 39% of games; Estac Troyes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Toulouse's recent matches and 50% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.