Strasbourg 1-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Strasbourg face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Meinau plays host to Strasbourg versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg at Stade de la Meinau this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Strasbourg are significantly better at Stade de la Meinau than their overall form suggests.
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Monaco are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Monaco have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Strasbourg's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Monaco winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Strasbourg 68% and Monaco 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 59% | Monaco 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.40 xG and Monaco 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.199 / defence 0.917 | Monaco attack 1.262 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.350. Monaco's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Strasbourg games / 44 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 34% | Draw 26% | Monaco 41%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Monaco 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 70% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 34% | Draw 26% | Monaco 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Strasbourg 1.40 / Monaco 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.199 / def 0.917 | Monaco attack 1.262 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Monaco (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Monaco xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Monaco kick off?
Strasbourg vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Strasbourg 1 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Strasbourg vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Monaco part of?
Strasbourg vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 34% chance of winning, Monaco a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Strasbourg and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 1 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Strasbourg and Monaco in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Strasbourg's attack at 1.20x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.26x) against Strasbourg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.85
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.97
1.56
Monaco xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.56 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 13W 13D 18L from 44 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 9L across 44 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 13W 4D 4L across 21 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Strasbourg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Monaco in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Monaco in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Monaco have gone 26W 9D 9L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.52 PPG; Monaco away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Monaco in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Strasbourg
2
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 2, Monaco have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Strasbourg, 67% for Monaco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Strasbourg and 71% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Strasbourg's games and 67% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Strasbourg's matches and 71% of Monaco's.
Do Strasbourg and Monaco tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Monaco in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Strasbourg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Strasbourg 1-3 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.40 xG and Monaco 1.56 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Monaco attack 1.26 / defence 0.77, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 34% | Draw 26% | Monaco 41%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 59%, Monaco 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.