Strasbourg 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Strasbourg host Lyon at Stade de la Meinau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Strasbourg — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Strasbourg at Stade de la Meinau this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Meinau.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lyon's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Strasbourg 1.90 PPG, Lyon 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Strasbourg, 1 for Lyon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Lyon in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 50% versus Lyon 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 43% | Lyon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.20 xG and Lyon 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.029 / defence 0.866 | Lyon attack 0.887 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.184. Data: 30 Strasbourg games / 30 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 27%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Lyon 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Strasbourg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 40% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Strasbourg 1.20 / Lyon 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.029 / def 0.866 | Lyon attack 0.887 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lyon xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Lyon kick off?
Strasbourg vs Lyon kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Strasbourg 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Strasbourg vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Lyon part of?
Strasbourg vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 42% chance of winning, Lyon a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Strasbourg and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Strasbourg 0W | Draws 0 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Lyon in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.28
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.11
0.91
Lyon xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.91 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Strasbourg have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 14W 9D 7L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.70 PPG, Lyon on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Strasbourg have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lyon have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.43 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 63%.
Defensively: Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Lyon in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Lyon have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Lyon away?
Strasbourg's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 2.14 PPG; Lyon away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lyon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Strasbourg's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Strasbourg
1
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 4, Lyon have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Strasbourg 3-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 50%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Strasbourg) and 43% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lyon in 36%; Lyon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Strasbourg vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Strasbourg's recent games and 43% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Lyon tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lyon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.20 xG and Lyon 0.91 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Lyon attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 27%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 43%, Lyon 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.70 PPG, Lyon 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.