Strasbourg 1-1 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Meinau plays host to Strasbourg versus Lorient in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Form
Strasbourg (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's home record at Stade de la Meinau: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lorient's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lorient are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lorient in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Strasbourg, 0 for Lorient and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 58% versus Lorient 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 46% | Lorient 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.42 xG and Lorient 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.875 / defence 1.137 | Lorient attack 1.140 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.361. Data: 52 Strasbourg games / 52 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 30% | Draw 25% | Lorient 45%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lorient 2.22. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lorient at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 70% | Lorient 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 30% | Draw 25% | Lorient 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Strasbourg 1.42 / Lorient 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.875 / def 1.137 | Lorient attack 1.140 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Lorient (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Lorient xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Lorient kick off?
Strasbourg vs Lorient kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Lorient?
Strasbourg 1 - 1 Lorient.
Where is Strasbourg vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Lorient part of?
Strasbourg vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 30% chance of winning, Lorient a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Strasbourg and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lorient?
Record (2 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 1 | Lorient 0W.
What form are Strasbourg and Lorient in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Lorient (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (0.88) and Lorient's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (1.14x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
30%
3.28
25%
4.07
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.18
1.76
Lorient xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
5%
19.15
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.76 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 18W 19D 15L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 21L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.21 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 11W 9D 6L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Strasbourg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.15 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Lorient in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 18W 19D 15L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Lorient have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Lorient away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.62 PPG; Lorient away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Strasbourg won 4-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
3
Draws
2
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Lorient have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lorient 2-3 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Lorient?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 58%, Lorient 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Strasbourg) and 58% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lorient in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Strasbourg's games and 58% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Strasbourg's recent games and 58% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Lorient tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lorient in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg and Lorient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg and Lorient finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.42 xG and Lorient 1.76 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Lorient attack 1.14 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 30% | Draw 25% | Lorient 45%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 46%, Lorient 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lorient's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.40 PPG, Lorient 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lorient (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.