Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Stade Brestois 29 — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse meet at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stade Brestois 29's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.30 for Toulouse. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Stade Brestois 29, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Toulouse — Toulouse have 1 win, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Stade Brestois 29 0–2 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Stade Brestois 29 and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Toulouse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 62% | Toulouse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.953 / defence 0.923 | Toulouse attack 1.038 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.256. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 52 games and Toulouse's last 52.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.80 | Draw 3.60 | Toulouse 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 25 January 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.19 / Toulouse 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.953 / def 0.923 | Toulouse attack 1.038 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Toulouse xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 36% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 0.95x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.04x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 52 games and Toulouse's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.60
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.39
1.20
Toulouse xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.20 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 9D 22L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 18W 14D 20L from 52 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.31 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 25 home games (14W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Stade Brestois 29 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 9W 6D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 9D 22L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Toulouse away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.92 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Toulouse in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Brestois 29 won Toulouse 0-3 Stade Brestois 29 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Toulouse have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Toulouse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stade Brestois 29) and 52% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Toulouse in 32%; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 44% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 52% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 64% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Stade Brestois 29 0-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Toulouse attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 62%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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