Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Reims at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reims — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Reims and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 51% versus Reims 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 45% | Reims 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.71 xG and Reims 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.934 / defence 0.795 | Reims attack 0.899 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.407. Reims bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stade Brestois 29's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Stade Brestois 29 games / 69 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 53% | Draw 25% | Reims 22%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Reims 4.55. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 30% | Reims 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 53% | Draw 25% | Reims 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.71 / Reims 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.934 / def 0.795 | Reims attack 0.899 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Reims xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 53% chance of winning, Reims a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 4 | Reims 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.93) and Reims's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.01
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.00
Reims xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
25.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.00 for Reims, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 27W 20D 22L from 69 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 24L across 69 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.46 PPG, Reims on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 15W 11D 9L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 9W 13D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Reims in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 27W 20D 22L in their last 69 games (1.46 PPG), while Reims have gone 23W 22D 24L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Reims away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.60 PPG; Reims away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reims in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
6
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Reims have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Reims?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 49%, Reims 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stade Brestois 29) and 51% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 60% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 51% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Reims tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Reims in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 33, as Stade Brestois 29 and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.71 xG and Reims 1.00 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Reims attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 53% | Draw 25% | Reims 22%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 45%, Reims 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.46 PPG, Reims 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.