Stade Brestois 29 2-5 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Stade Brestois 29 face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Paris Saint Germain travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris Saint Germain stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's (from Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Stade Brestois 29.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Stade Brestois 29 1–3 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 47% versus Paris Saint Germain 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 47% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.49 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.216 / defence 0.884 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.435 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.268. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.435, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 53 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 53.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 33% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 3.00 | Draw 3.53 | Paris Saint Germain 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 60% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 33% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.49 / Paris Saint Germain 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.216 / def 0.884 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.435 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Paris Saint Germain xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 5 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 33% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 1.22x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 53 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.53
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.10
1.61
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.61 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 26W 11D 16L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 36W 15D 2L from 53 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stade Brestois 29.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 8D 4L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 19W 7D 0L from their last 26 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.45 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 68%.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 26W 11D 16L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 36W 15D 2L in their last 53 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.92 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won Stade Brestois 29 2-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
9
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 46%, Paris Saint Germain 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stade Brestois 29) and 54% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 62% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 73% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Stade Brestois 29 2-5 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.49 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.61 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.61 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.22 / defence 0.88 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.44 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 33% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 38%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 47%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.68. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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