Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stade Brestois 29 face Nice.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Nice in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 16:05 UK time.

Form

Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Stade Brestois 29 at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Nice have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Nice have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.90 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Nice edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Stade Brestois 29 0–0 Nice — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 49% | Nice 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.63 xG and Nice 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.228 / defence 0.803 | Nice attack 0.807 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.108. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 57 games and Nice's last 57.

Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 57% | Draw 29% | Nice 14%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.76 | Draw 3.43 | Nice 7.20. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (57%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 50% (last 10 home games) | Nice 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights