Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Estac Troyes are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 1W, Estac Troyes 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 5–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 64% and Estac Troyes 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Estac Troyes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.663 / defence 1.169 | Estac Troyes attack 1.339 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.373. Stade Brestois 29's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Estac Troyes have an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Stade Brestois 29 games / 52 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 22% | Draw 22% | Estac Troyes 56%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Estac Troyes 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Estac Troyes 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 22% | Draw 22% | Estac Troyes 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.31 / Estac Troyes 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.663 / def 1.169 | Estac Troyes attack 1.339 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Estac Troyes xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.66) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (1.34x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
22%
4.51
22%
4.59
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.46
2.15
Estac Troyes xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
12%
8.58
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
3%
38.65
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 2.15 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 13D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.00 PPG from 52 outings (12W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.00 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 7W 7D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (6W 4D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.19 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Estac Troyes in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 16D 24L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Estac Troyes away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.12 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Brestois 29 won 5-1 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Estac Troyes 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 52%, Estac Troyes 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stade Brestois 29) and 60% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 68% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 60% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 2.15 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.66 / defence 1.17 against Estac Troyes attack 1.34 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 22% | Draw 22% | Estac Troyes 56%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.12 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.