Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Rennes — this Saint Etienne vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rennes travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have recorded 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Rennes have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 0.80 PPG, Rennes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Rennes have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Saint Etienne. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Saint Etienne 0–5 Rennes — a Rennes win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Rennes have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rennes trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 37% versus Rennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 43% | Rennes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.60 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / defence 0.964 | Rennes attack 0.907 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.307. Rennes's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 20 games and Rennes's last 54.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.20 | Draw 3.35 | Rennes 4.03. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Rennes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.60 / Rennes 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / def 0.964 | Rennes attack 0.907 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rennes xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rennes FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rennes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Rennes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rennes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Rennes a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 20 games and Rennes's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.35
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.74
1.14
Rennes xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.14 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 10D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (18W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.46 PPG, Rennes on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 15W 4D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.48 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rennes
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Rennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rennes Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Rennes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 10D 21L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Rennes have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rennes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.88 PPG; Rennes away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Rennes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rennes have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2021, when Rennes won Saint Etienne 0-5 Rennes.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 0, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 38%, Rennes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games; Rennes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Rennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 54% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Rennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 65% of Rennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.60 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rennes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.46 PPG, Rennes 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 21
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →