Saint Etienne 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Final sees Nice travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 May 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.10 PPG versus Nice's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Nice, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Saint Etienne.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with Nice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Nice have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nice trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 54% versus Nice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 54% | Nice 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Nice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.010 / defence 1.022 | Nice attack 0.845 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.328. Data: 34 Saint Etienne games / 68 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Nice 26%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 3.85. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Nice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Final | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Nice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Saint Etienne 1.56 / Nice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.010 / def 1.022 | Nice attack 0.845 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nice xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nice kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nice kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 May 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nice part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nice is a Final fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Nice a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Nice 4W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Nice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.01x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.53
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.70
1.15
Nice xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.15 for Nice, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 7D 20L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.00 PPG from 35 outings (8W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.89 PPG, Nice on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nice have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.23 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Nice have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nice away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.29 PPG; Nice away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 59%, Nice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Saint Etienne) and 59% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Saint Etienne's games and 65% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Saint Etienne's matches and 59% of Nice's.
Do Saint Etienne and Nice tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Nice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Final, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Nice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Nice attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Nice 26%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 54%, Nice 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG, Nice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.