Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Saint Etienne face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Nantes meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Saint Etienne at home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Nantes away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Saint Etienne, 0.70 for Nantes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Nantes edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Saint Etienne 2–2 Nantes — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 33% versus Nantes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 43% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Nantes 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.889 / defence 0.942 | Nantes attack 0.918 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.312. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 17 games and Nantes's last 51.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.26 | Draw 3.42 | Nantes 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.51 / Nantes 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.889 / def 0.942 | Nantes attack 0.918 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Nantes xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nantes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nantes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.89) and Nantes's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.92x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 17 games and Nantes's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.42
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Nantes xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.13 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 23W 8D 20L from 51 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 26L across 51 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 3D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantes's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.98 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Nantes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 20L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 13D 26L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nantes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.96 PPG; Nantes away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Nantes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 1, Nantes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Saint Etienne 1-0 Nantes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 35%, Nantes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Saint Etienne) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games; Nantes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 54% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 65% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 18, as Saint Etienne and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Nantes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Nantes attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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