Saint Etienne 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Relegation Round sees Auxerre travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 0 for Auxerre and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.32 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.924 / defence 1.573 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.299. Data: 38 Saint Etienne games / 0 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 47%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 2.13. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Saint Etienne 1.32 / Auxerre 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.924 / def 1.573 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Auxerre xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre part of?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 29% chance of winning, Auxerre a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Saint Etienne and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Auxerre (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
29%
3.42
24%
4.24
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.06
1.74
Auxerre xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.45
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.74 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.00 PPG, Auxerre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Auxerre in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Saint Etienne's games and 100% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 0% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Auxerre tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.32 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.92 / defence 1.57 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 47%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 0%, Auxerre 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG, Auxerre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.